From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action appears to be contained within an ascending parallel channel that developed since Oct. 4. Every time BTC has risen to this technical formation’s upper boundary since then, it has been rejected and retraced to the pattern’s lower edge. From this point, it tends to rebound, which is consistent with the characteristics of a parallel channel.
We set the stage for our formal econometric analysis by providing some graphical evidence. For example, in Figure 1, we see a close mapping of the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum with their respective computing power values. Moreover, in Figure 2, we observe an even stronger mapping of the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum with their respective network values. Interestingly, these graphs also show that when prices significantly exceed the trend in computing power or network (as was the case in late 2017), prices eventually fall and trace the trend in fundamentals. The convergence of prices to the trend with fundamentals suggests that fundamentals are the ultimate, long-run determinants of prices.

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While the success of any cryptocurrency initiative is not guaranteed, if it meets its objectives, early investors may be well rewarded in the long run. To be regarded as a long-term success, any cryptocurrency initiative must first achieve widespread adoption.