We set the stage for our formal econometric analysis by providing some graphical evidence. For example, in Figure 1, we see a close mapping of the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum with their respective computing power values. Moreover, in Figure 2, we observe an even stronger mapping of the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum with their respective network values. Interestingly, these graphs also show that when prices significantly exceed the trend in computing power or network (as was the case in late 2017), prices eventually fall and trace the trend in fundamentals. The convergence of prices to the trend with fundamentals suggests that fundamentals are the ultimate, long-run determinants of prices.
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All the signs, however, were there. Like previous bubbles, people were basing their belief in the cryptocurrency on their emotions, not any intrinsic value. Then there was the FOMO element, which only compounded things. Essentially, bitcoin became an international fever. Random companies were “pivoting to blockchain” for no apparent reason other than that it seemed like a way to create buzz. But when the bubble bursts, FOMO turns into fear of losing, which makes for an especially rapid plunge.
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