Plan B Bitcoin Forecast
Baker, M. and J. Wurgler (2006), “Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns”, The Journal of Finance 61 (4), 1645–1680.
As we don’t know exactly how to classify them, it’s difficult to attribute a direct causality to a specific factor and a crypto’s rise or dive in value.
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Virtual currencies. Like fiat currency, virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ether are intended as a medium of exchange that enables two parties to transact business. But there are important differences: No physical coins or bills. Virtual currencies exist only in computer code. Except for visual representation of Bitcoin and altcoins in advertising and displays, and coin-like tokens that may be produced for marketing purposes, there are no actual coins or bills. Not legal tender. Virtual currencies are not legal tender and are not issued or backed by a government. However, many virtual currencies, which are called convertible virtual currencies, can be redeemed for fiat currency on a number of exchanges. No regulation. Virtual currencies are not regulated by any government agency or authority. However, regulation is being considered, especially where virtual currencies function as securities when they’re used to raise capital and when traded on exchanges.
The price fluctuations came as conflicting reports on whether Chinese property giant Evergrande had "defaulted" on its loan surfaced.
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What makes the fee structure so complicated is Binance’s focus on different fees for different levels of users. While, theoretically, this is similar in both the main platform and Binance.US, the American platform has fewer of these levels. For some, this may seem simple and clear; but it could also mean that using Binance.US is more costly than its main counterpart.
All the signs, however, were there. Like previous bubbles, people were basing their belief in the cryptocurrency on their emotions, not any intrinsic value. Then there was the FOMO element, which only compounded things. Essentially, bitcoin became an international fever. Random companies were “pivoting to blockchain” for no apparent reason other than that it seemed like a way to create buzz. But when the bubble bursts, FOMO turns into fear of losing, which makes for an especially rapid plunge.
